All Blacks 121-70 after three wins
That 121-70 in three tests has me looking hard at the line, bro. All Blacks unbeaten and sitting 2nd on 15 points, Wallabies a win from three with 85 points leaked - on pure form I'd want double digits on the start, maybe more. Trouble is the TAB knows everyone's leaning the same way, so the line will move once the public loads up on NZ.
My plan: wait until midweek before 10 October rather than take whatever they open at. Last month I took an early price and watched it drift two points my way without me. Lesson banked. If they give the Wallabies anything under 10, that's where my bankroll goes on the All Blacks conceding the start. If it opens 12+ I'll probly look at the margin bands instead, paid out better for me than straight head-to-heads lately. 💸
That 121-70 in three tests has me looking hard at the line, bro. All Blacks unbeaten and sitting 2nd on 15 points, Wallabies a win from three with 85 points leaked - on pure form I'd want double digits on the start, mayb…
114 scored against who, though? Leak 85 in three tests and the attack numbers mean nothing once the All Blacks hit half pace. Double digits is the floor, I'd want more.
Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
Did a quick spread of the three tests last night against my own tracking sheet, and one number bugs me: the Wallabies scored 114 themselves, so their defence is leaky but they're not toothless. Small sample though - three tests tells you plenty about the ABs' attack, less about how Wallabies travels to Eden Park on 10 October. I could be wrong, but I'd take 121-70 as a points-for stat rather than a line predictor; the 70 conceded by the ABs suggests a double-digit start might be enough, anything past 15 starts depending how you count it. 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
Scrum10's got a point, mate - 114 against sides leaking 85 themselves tells you the Wallabies only show up when the other mob forgets to defend. I'd take double digits and laugh, honestly. And in reality? I backed the All Blacks minus whatever TAB offered in every test so far and my account's looking healthy 🤡💸 So sure thing, give the Aussies their ten points, more sweets for us punters who actually watch the footy 😏
Here to argue, not to nod along.
Where's Rob's tracking sheet? Points scored in garbage time flatter leaky sides. I'll believe a big Wallabies showing when the line and the 85-point defence actually contradict each other.
Hype isn't an argument.
Noticed the same thing Queenstown51 did - my multi legs on the Wallabies getting points this season have mostly died in the last quarter when the All Blacks bench comes on. 121-70 for a team conceding 70 in three tests tells me these games stay open, so 85 leaked against weaker attacks worries me plenty. I'd want the line in the mid-teens before I touch the Wallabies; anything under double digits is TAB tax as far as I'm concerned. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Queenstown51 wants a contradiction between the line and 85 points conceded, the contradiction is in your own numbers. 121-70 means the "unbeaten" mob leaked 70 too.
Sample first, conclusions after.
Took a chunk on the ABs -13 in June thinking the line had peaked and paid myself out inside 40 minutes 🍺 lesson learnt there. Both defences are munted though, 70 conceded from a winning side says everything, so purely from a market angle I like picking off spots where the sportsbook pushes past low teens. Anything near +17 on the Aussies smells value even given the ladder gap.
Bankroll discipline wins.
RotoruaLoyal has a point buried in there, to be fair. Both defences leaking means "121-70" tells you less than people want it to. Three wins from three says the ABs win; 70 conceded says nobody's flushing a double-digit line on defence alone.
Where the thread keeps slipping is treating the line like a verdict on quality. It's a price. If the TAB lands at, say, 9 or 10 and half of you still feel it's light, that feeling needs a source. Last quarter fades against fresh benches, maybe, like Jackal said. Define what "big enough start" actually means before arguing it: covers the line, or wins outright? Those are different bets and different prices, and at least one of you is mixing them up.
Long is the trap here - those 70 points the ABs leaked came against real attacks, and the Wallabies can score. I'd rather take them past 13 than back the ABs to land it. Last leg of my multi died exactly that way. 😭
Value over a big price 💸
PaulOpenside, you'd take the Wallabies past 13 based on what, vibes? They've still lost two of three and leaked 85. Happy to be proven wrong on 10 October, on condition that someone shows me a single Wallabies performance this window that suggests they keep it under two converted tries. I'll believe it when I see it.
Sample first, conclusions after.
I put 50 on the ABs -12 and I'm not thrilled about it, if I'm honest. Both defences leaking means the line lives or dies in the last 15, and the Wallabies scored plenty (114 across three tests) even while losing. The ABs at home still land it, but the ROI is thin at anything past 13. Tramping's got a point, Paul's got a point too. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
But isn't the 114 the Wallabies scored vs the 85 leaked a bit of a contradiction? Maybe I'm wrong, but how do they score that much and still get 13+ against them? 😅 Go easy on me!
New here, soaking it up.
Nick, the answer is game state - Wallabies score junk when the game's already gone, chasing in the last quarter. That inflates 114 and means nothing for keeping it under 13. My read: the ABs win by 15-18, so anything at -13 or shorter lands, but I'm only putting NZ$20 on the margin band, not sweating a full payout on the line. 🔥
Value over a big price 💸
Supporter_Life pretty much nailed the junk points thing 😂 game state is the whole answer, Nick. My two cents: 13+ looks about right and anything past that I'd rather take the ABs straight and my missus' $20 for the pub after. Wallabies keep it honest for 50 minutes, then curtain call 🍿
Came to laugh, stayed for life 🍿
Supporter_Life pretty much nailed the junk points thing 😂 game state is the whole answer, Nick. My two cents: 13+ looks about right and anything past that I'd rather take the ABs straight and my missus' $20 for the pub a…
@JohnNapier1976 that pub money's the smartest pick of the whole thread 😂 13+ feels about right to me too, though I reckon the boys don't even need to be told to keep the boot on - Eden Park at night, crowd roaring, they'll smell blood on their own 💪 backing them all day, mate 🔥
Junk points stuff is right tbh, we've all watched it happen, you just know the Wallabies are gonna pinch a couple of tries when we're already up big and the boys take the foot off 😅 I'd still back us to cover though, that last quarter at home gets ROUGH for them 🔥💪
You don't abandon your own.
Ah that junk points thing finally makes sense, cheers 😅 so the late tries don't really count for the line then? Still learning this stuff, sorry if that's dumb 🙏
Dumb questions are my specialty.
@Wellington_15 not a dumb question at all mate, everyone starts somewhere 😏 the line already factors in that stuff, bookies aren't muppets — but word going round is the ABs have been told to keep the boot on right up to the whistle this time, no foot off. Watch what happens at Eden Park. That's all I'll say 🤫
Solid source, details in the DMs.
Ah that junk points thing finally makes sense, cheers 😅 so the late tries don't really count for the line then? Still learning this stuff, sorry if that's dumb 🙏
@Wellington_15 don't laugh guys, but I only figured out the junk points thing last season myself 😅 the late tries do count for the score, the line's already priced for them, that's the bit that confused me for ages. Keen to see the last 20 at Eden Park if the boys really do keep the boot on 🙌
Ah that junk points thing finally makes sense, cheers 😅 so the late tries don't really count for the line then? Still learning this stuff, sorry if that's dumb 🙏
@Wellington_15 nah not dumb mate, we all started somewhere 🙌 they do count, the line just already expects them. Watch the last 20 at Eden Park, boys going for the throat 🔥💪
One love, one side ❤️
@Wellington_15 not a dumb question at all mate, everyone starts somewhere 😏 the line already factors in that stuff, bookies aren't muppets — but word going round is the ABs have been told to keep the boot on right up to …
@ChrisFullback nah that's the vibe I'm getting too 🔥 remember the game day feel from my playing days, once the crowd gets up, no one eases off. Wallabies gonna cop it late at Eden Park, mark it down 💪
Everyone on here calling late tries like they've got a crystal ball 😂 the line's already priced for the junk points, like Metric said. Everyone crowing about the 13+, remind me of your ROI again? 🤡💸 Put my TAB multi on the last-20 carnage and I'll happily admit it if the Wallabies somehow spoil the party 😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
Everyone on here calling late tries like they've got a crystal ball 😂 the line's already priced for the junk points, like Metric said. Everyone crowing about the 13+, remind me of your ROI again? 🤡💸 Put my TAB multi on t…
@Napier_Legend1980 so asking for ROI means you know it works then? 😅 still learning all this, but no one's got a crystal ball, that's fair.
Dumb questions are my specialty.
@Napier_Legend1980 so asking for ROI means you know it works then? 😅 still learning all this, but no one's got a crystal ball, that's fair.
@SteveAuckland nah he's just stirring mate, usual stuff 😂 no crystal ball here but the boys have been running hot all three tests and Eden Park late with the crowd up? backing them all day tbh 🔥💪 through thick and thin, even when our lot never make it easy
Heart with the team, head on pause.
Everyone on here calling late tries like they've got a crystal ball 😂 the line's already priced for the junk points, like Metric said. Everyone crowing about the 13+, remind me of your ROI again? 🤡💸 Put my TAB multi on t…
@Napier_Legend1980 mate, no one's claiming a crystal ball 😏 but word going round is the selectors are backing an 8-1 finish on the bench for Eden Park, and those who know, know what that does to the last quarter. Line's priced for junk points, sure, doesn't mean it's wrong money.
As for ROI, my source keeps me well clear of the TAB anyway, put it that way 🤫 screenshot this if you want, I'll happily eat the egg if it lands sideways.
Solid source, details in the DMs.
@Napier_Legend1980 mate, no one's claiming a crystal ball 😏 but word going round is the selectors are backing an 8-1 finish on the bench for Eden Park, and those who know, know what that does to the last quarter. Line's …
@JackSidestep heard similar whispers myself, though my source won't hold past Thursday 😏 8-1 split makes sense if they're planning to run the Wallabies ragged late. Fresh loosies at Eden Park with the crowd up, that's when sides crack.
Take it with a grain of salt though, half of what lands in my inbox from that corner never comes off 🤫 Still, if it's true, the last quarter writes itself.
Those who know, know.