All Blacks 15 points, Wallabies two losses - is the gap real?
121-70 versus 114-85 tells you enough, the ABs winning the lot while the Wallabies leak 114 is why the line will move sharply before 17 October. I took the ABs minus whatever in the last one and it landed easy; the gap looks real to me. Punters chasing the "one bad half" story are betting with their hearts, and that's how a bankroll dies. 😭💸
Bankroll discipline wins.
Kev you cheeky punter, took the ABs line and it landed easy yeah nah surprise there 😂 but 85 points from the Wallabies is why I'm not writing them off tbh. We leak tries and still score plenty. One bad half doesn't kill a rivalry, eh 🔥 17 Oct at our place, you just know the boys will turn up 💪🙌
You don't abandon your own.
85 points against leaking 114 is classic lottery stuff, not a plan, scoring into a broken defence tells you nothing come 17 October. Queenstown_Mad, remind me of your ROI before you back that chase? 😏 ABs 3 from 3 and the line only moves one way, I've already had my slice at the TAB before the sharp money makes it ugly 💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
Kept a running sheet on this championship myself, and the spread between those two numbers matters more than either one alone. Kev, 121-70 versus 114-85 looks like a chasm until you compare the defence properly: 70 conceded in three against 114 is a 44-point swing, but the Wallabies' 85 scored says their attack is genuinely live. Three matches is a small sample though, and I could be wrong, but one blown half tends to distort a for-and-against column far more than a full performance does. Queenstown_Mad has a point, if they'd leaked 114 while scoring 50, I'd write them off; scoring 85 means the line on 17 October won't be as fat as Kev's TAB slip hopes.
Napier, the lottery framing cuts both ways: the ABs winning three from three with a +51 differential is the only non-lottery number in the table. I'd want to see how those 114 leaked points were sequenced - clusters in one half or spread evenly? That tells you whether it's structural or one bad 40.
Context beats a bare stat.
Mad's got half a point but I'm with the ABs here 💪 70 conceded in three games vs 114? That's where games get won, you can score all the flashy tries you like if your defence falls over every time someone runs straight at it. And our lot never make it easy, but winning all three to start the championship? That's form, that's a plan, that's belief 🔥
Kev talking about the line moving - take my money at the TAB before then, I've watched too many Wallabies sides talk up a big one then go missing for twenty minutes and lose the whole test in that window. Happens every year tbh. 17 Oct can't come soon enough 🙌 Through thick and thin, black jersey all day 🔥
Heart with the team, head on pause.
Funny how everyone's a defensive guru till the ABs choke one at Eden Park, eh. I'll take the 85 points over Rob's running sheet any day 😏 TAB loves certainty, that's why they're rich.
Here to argue, not to nod along.
Watched we hold our line all championship, defense travels anywhere 💪 85 flashy points means nought when we're strangling teams at the breakdown. You just know 🔥
You don't abandon your own.
85 points against a leaky 114 conceded means nothing till they meet a line that moves. I've had too many "flashy attack" multis die on defence 😭
Value over a big price 💸
KevFan, define "landed easy" - a line moving before kick-off is just money talking, no evidence there. What I'd look at is who's conceded 70 in three while nobody else got under 85; that's not flash, that's structure. MaulTragic, "you just know" is a feeling, and feelings don't win Bledisloe Tests. I'll believe the gap when I see it on 17 October.
Sample first, conclusions after.
Maybe I'm missing something, but doesn't "you just know" cut both ways? All Blacks were "certain" too once and still dropped tests. Both defences look shaky to me, no? 😅
New here, soaking it up.
Maybe I'm missing something, but doesn't "you just know" cut both ways? All Blacks were "certain" too once and still dropped tests. Both defences look shaky to me, no? 😅
@Nick_Tauranga you're not missing anything, both defences have leaked. Difference is one side fixed it inside three matches, the other's been patching the same hole for a season. Shaky isn't shaky when the trend is moving in opposite directions. I'll believe the Wallabies have tightened up when I see it against a forward pack that actually contests.
Hype isn't an argument.
Maybe I'm missing something, but doesn't "you just know" cut both ways? All Blacks were "certain" too once and still dropped tests. Both defences look shaky to me, no? 😅
Fair point Nick, I've sat through enough ABs faceplants at the pub to know "certain" means nothing 😂 that's why I'm here instead of at the TAB window.
Came to laugh, stayed for life 🍿
Maybe I'm missing something, but doesn't "you just know" cut both ways? All Blacks were "certain" too once and still dropped tests. Both defences look shaky to me, no? 😅
@SweetAsNZ that's the right read, defence trend going one way only. Only thing I'd add is wait for the line. If they open at 15 or under I'm having a decent slice, if it creeps past 17 I'd rather fold it into a multi with the odd try scorer. Eden Park helps too, Wallabies haven't looked comfortable there in ages 💸
Value over a big price 💸
@SweetAsNZ that's the right read, defence trend going one way only. Only thing I'd add is wait for the line. If they open at 15 or under I'm having a decent slice, if it creeps past 17 I'd rather fold it into a multi wit…
@Jackal still learning the betting side of things here, so excuse me if this is dumb 😅 - what does "fold it into a multi with the odd try scorer" actually mean? Thanks 🙏
Dumb questions are my specialty.
@Wellington_15 not dumb at all. He means combining the main bet with another pick (first try scorer, say) into one multi. Both must land for the payout. Higher odds, higher risk. Receipts come later.
Numbers are honest, takes aren't.