Are the Hurricanes really that good?
Don't laugh if this is a dumb question but I'm still learning this stuff 😅 What does "benefit of the doubt" even mean with TMO calls? I've watched a few Hurricanes games this season and they looked plain good to me - 11 wins from 14 speaks for itself, hard out. Or is there something the ref crews notice that us newbies miss? 🤔
Dumb questions are my specialty.
Fair question Wellington_15, and nah it's not dumb 😄 benefit of the doubt basically means if the TMO can't clearly see a forward pass or double movement, the call goes to the side the ref leaned towards on the day. Thing is, top sides get that lean more because they're usually the ones attacking - 11 wins in 14 and 562 points put them there by doing the work, not the whistle 🔥💪
One love, one side ❤️
Fair question Wellington_15, and nah it's not dumb 😄 benefit of the doubt basically means if the TMO can't clearly see a forward pass or double movement, the call goes to the side the ref leaned towards on the day. Thing…
Hmm, so every call the Canes "win" is ref bias, but the 562 points they've hung on teams is what, TMO charity too? 🤡 Remind me of your ROI on backing against them, Metric_Lab? 😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
Wellington_15, hard out is right, 264 points of differential doesn't come from TMO charity. I could be wrong, but benefit of the doubt tends to favour the side playing on the front foot. Small sample though. 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
Quick question, don't laugh 😅 when RobFirstFive says "front foot", does that just mean which team's attacking more? Thanks! 🙏
Yeah JohnInvercargill84 pretty much, front foot means the side that's on top of the tackle, going forward. If the Hurricanes are punching over the advantage line and the ball's messy at the breakdown, the ref's gut call usually goes their way, because that's how the law book reads it. That's the benefit of the doubt Metric_Lab mentioned: TMO can't see it clean on the replay, so the attacking side keeps the call. A Canes try from a 50/50 double movement that gets given? That's the whistle quietly nodding at the dominant team, not some conspiracy.
My angle's simpler - I put NZ$20 on them conceding under 15 in a couple of those wins and it landed both times. Nobody's stopping them at the ruck, so of course the TMO calls stack up in their favour. Side putting 562 points through after 14 rounds deserves the doubt more than the side camped in their own 22 does. RobFirstFive nailed it, small sample or not. 🍺
That finally makes sense to me, thanks SweetAsNZ 🙏 I watched the Canes smash teams earlier this season and even I could see the 50/50 calls kept landing their way, but yeah, when you're 11-3 and scoring like that the ref's probably not the reason. Still feels a bit unfair when you're on the other end of it though 😅
New here, soaking it up.
RobFirstFive said it himself, small sample, that's the whole problem with this debate. 562 points for and 298 against after 14 rounds means the Canes spent most of their games camped in the right end of the park, and refs reward territory whether they mean to or not. If you want to argue the whistle, bring receipts on the specific calls, not vibes from watching on Sky with a beer in hand.
Supporter88 nailed it. Territory earns the whistle, 298 points against tells you the Canes are rarely defending theirs. Show me a referee holding the table-toppers back, then I'll believe it.
Sample first, conclusions after.
Reffed juniors for years and I can tell ya, momentum gets you every 50/50 call 😤 Canes earn theirs by staying on the front foot, backing them all day 🔥💪
So if I've got this right (thanks RotoruaLoyal, that actually clicked for me 😅), the Canes are winning territory so the whistle follows them around, yeah? 11-3 after 14 rounds feels like they'd be top even on a bad day with the ref, but I guess only way to really know is if they started losing the foot race 🤔 keen to see if it holds up in the finals.