Bay of Plenty got smashed 26:45 by Tasman
That Tasman score is what's setting the line, and fair enough, 26:45 away is ugly no matter how you spin it. But Harbour only snuck past Otago and lost by one to Canterbury, so I'm not rushing to back either side. Had a crack on BOP off that Hawke's Bay win and got burned in Nelson; lesson taken, I'll wait for the line to settle before putting anything on this.
Trust the home form? I'd trust it about as far as I can throw the Rotorua goalposts after that Nelson trip. I keep my own table each round and the pattern I see is this: the Hawke's Bay win on 19 September was a 32:17 game at home, and the Tasman loss six days later was 26:45 away. Same side, different venue, 19-point swing in margin, that gap smells like a venue effect more than a form collapse. Compare that with Harbour's fortnight: 24:25 at home to Canterbury, then 32:21 at home to Otago. Both their recent games were at North Harbour, so their line of form is essentially a home-only sample. I could be wrong, but if you weight for where each side actually played, the two teams are closer than the Tasman blowout suggests, which is probably why the TAB line sits tight. Small sample though. Three results each. So I'd want a small stake rather than anything heavy either way. Depends how you count venue too; some models split home/away, some lump it. 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
Rob, your own table proves my point more than yours. Two games, opposite venues, six days apart, that's a sample of nothing. You can't price a line off a fortnight of form.
SweetAs has it right: Harbour lost by a single point to Canterbury and edged Otago 32:21 at home. Where's the evidence they travel? Nobody's shown me a single away result for them. I'll believe it when I see it. If the TAB line is tight, my read is the market knows both sides are thin data sets and it's hedging accordingly. Small stake or pass — value has to come from somewhere, and a two-match window isn't it. Source on Harbour's away form, anyone?
Hype isn't an argument.
Two games is a sample of nothing? Sure thing, mate, and yet you're both happy to price Harbour off the same two. Awkward, that. 😏
Here to argue, not to nod along.
LockLegend's onto it, you're all pricing Harbour off the same two games you slag Steamers for. 😏 Rob, remind me of your ROI before we trust your magic table?
Show me your ROI first 😏
🤣 LockLegend you menace, you've just blown up everyone's spreadsheet. Genuinely though, that Hawke's Bay win felt good at the time but I put $20 on the Steamers that arvo and watched the Tasman game at work like... mate, fold city. Two games each, nobody knows anything, gonna be a fun night regardless. Hold my pint 🍿
Hold my pint.
KevFan, that Nelson slip got me too, had a few NZ$ on the Steamers that week and learnt quick 😅 I get why the line's tight, Harbour only beat Otago by 11 and lost by a point to Canterbury, so they're not exactly flying either. Maybe I'm wrong, but that two-week swing from the Hawke's Bay win has me scared of the home form more than the Tasman score itself. Anyone actually seen the line move yet? 🤔
New here, soaking it up.
Sorry if this is a dumb question, still learning how lines work 😅 but does the TAB tighten it because everyone's still remembering the Hawke's Bay win? Feels like that 32:17 is doing a lot of heavy lifting, when two weeks later the same team got beaten by 19 in Nelson 🤔
Nick your NZ$ lesson hit home for me too, I nearly chucked the Steamers in a weekend multi before reading this thread, glad I held off. Harbour losing by a single point to Canterbury honestly reads better to me than either Steamers result. Cheers to whoever explained the fortnight swing thing, got it now 🙏
Dumb questions are my specialty.
Honestly the fortnight swing is what scares me, one week the Steamers look class against Hawke's Bay at home, next week they're cooked in Nelson 🔥 KevFan's right, those swings mess with your head (and your multi 😭). Harbours form ain't exactly scary either, that Canterbury loss by a point says more to me than the Otago win tbh. You just know our lot never make it easy 💪
You don't abandon your own.
Agree with StandsGuy, those swings do my head in 😅 I was at the Tasman game down here in Nelson, Steamers just fell apart after halftime. Anyone else tempted by a wee multi anyway? 🙈 Thanks JohnBlues, good warning
Took a bit of the Harbour line last night for a small NZ$ stake and honestly the tight number suits me fine, Steamers getting that much respect off one home win while Harbour beat Otago properly? Mean value there. Keeping it single though, no way that swing lands on a multi 😭
Value over a big price 💸