Taranaki put 55 on Southland, Wellington leaked 52, who wins 4 Oct?
Been keeping my spreadhsheet on the NPC form lines and the gap here is wider than it looks: Taranaki put 55 on Southland at home last weekend, while Wellington were shipping 52 to Northland at home the week before, and a defence leaking that much on their own patch is what worries me most. Could be wrong, but that Northland score tells me Wellington's system is wobbling, so I'd lean hosts for 4 October, though I want to see how they go away to Hawke's Bay and how Wellington handle Waikato on the 27th before I settle a margin leg. Small sample though, two results each.
Context beats a bare stat.
Anyone else remember when these two used to trade blows in proper KO footy? Some of the old NPC clashes between Taranaki and Wellington had real edge to them, amber and black vs the lions, tight games more often than blowouts. 😏
Word going round the yams are buzzing after that 55 on Southland, but the source won't hold on how much of that was Southland just folding. Wellington conceding 52 to Northland at their own ground tells you their defence is leaking, sure, but form lines between these two have a habit of meaning less than you'd think. History says take the 27th games first, then talk margin. Details in the DMs for those who know. 🤫
Those who know, know.
55 on Southland 😱🔥 heart says Taranaki all the way bro, gonna be a shootout tho, Wellington gonna wanna answer for that Northland hiding 💪
Taranaki -12 looks value already, but that 28:52 leak changes everything. Waiting on the 27th games before I lock the margin leg. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Naive question maybe, but does one big win over Southland really mean much? 😅 Could just be Southland being awful. Keen to see the 27th games first 🙏
New here, soaking it up.
Nick basically said what I was thinking 😅 Southland getting smacked by 55 might say more about Southland than Taranaki, and Wellington's defence honestly scares me more than Taranaki's attack impresses me. Don't laugh but explain like I'm five. Does home ground count for that much in the NPC, or should I just wait for the 27th like everyone else? 🙏
Learning from the veterans, go easy 🙏
Fair question Nick 😅 Southland were poor but 55's still 55, you just know form when you see it. Wellington leaking 52 at home tho? Scary 🔥 waiting on the 27th tbh.
Funny one for me, watching Taranaki roll into McLean Park on the 27th 😅 I'll be there in the HB colours obviously, but that away trip into us will tell everyone more about them than the Southland rout ever did, and yeah Nick, you're right, 55 might just be a bad Southland side. Leaking 52 at home to Northland is worse tho, that's a defence falling over 🔥 still leaning hosts, waiting on the 27th.
Heart with the team, head on pause.
Funny one for me, watching Taranaki roll into McLean Park on the 27th 😅 I'll be there in the HB colours obviously, but that away trip into us will tell everyone more about them than the Southland rout ever did, and yeah …
@StandsGuyLoyal fair point, McLean Park away is a proper test. Just don't pretend a Hawke's Bay home game settles the 4th, form can flip in a fortnight. Receipts before anyone locks that multi.
Hmm, quick one from me 😅 if 55 tells us nothing about Taranaki because Southland were hopeless, doesn't 52 conceded tell us even less about Wellington? Northland might've just had one of those afternoons 🔥 I'm with Nick and Chur, the 27th games will sort it - cheers for the McLean Park call StandsGuy, that one does feel like the real test 🙏
Taranaki at home I believe, Wellington's defence I don't, but both scorelines come with an asterisk. 27th settles it, then I lock the multi 💸
Value over a big price 💸
JohnInvercargill84 asks the smart question here honestly 😏 leaking 52 says plenty though, defence travels badly and it travels worse when the crowd's on your back.
Word going round the traps is Wellington's camp ain't exactly calm this week. Won't say more than that, my source would string me up 🤫 The 27th at McLean Park tells us plenty, then the 4th sorts the rest. Screenshot this if the vibe's right.
Solid source, details in the DMs.
Hmm, quick one from me 😅 if 55 tells us nothing about Taranaki because Southland were hopeless, doesn't 52 conceded tell us even less about Wellington? Northland might've just had one of those afternoons 🔥 I'm with Nick …
@JohnInvercargill84 decent logic mate, but a leak's a leak wherever it comes from. Word going round the traps is Wellington's defensive meetings haven't exactly gone smoothly 🤫 you'll all find out soon.
Solid source, details in the DMs.
@JohnInvercargill84 decent logic mate, but a leak's a leak wherever it comes from. Word going round the traps is Wellington's defensive meetings haven't exactly gone smoothly 🤫 you'll all find out soon.
@ChrisFullback "word going round the traps" from two of youse in the same week? That's not an insider tip mate, that's a copy-paste 😂 What's your actual source or are we just vibe-checking a defence now? Genuinely asking. Did you hear anything real, or just smelling blood like the rest of us 🤡
Show me your ROI first 😏
Still learning this comp properly so don't laugh if I've got it wrong 😅 but is the 27th game actually the one that decides this, or is everyone just guessing off one bad defensive week? Because Wellington leaking 52 once doesn't mean they'll fold again, does it?
Either way Taranaki at home feels safer to me, crowds get loud down there. I only put a few NZ$ on the TAB anyway, too new to trust myself with a multi 🙏
Dumb questions are my specialty.
@Wellington_15 no laughing here mate, fair question. One leak doesn't sink you, but from a punter's view it shifts the line, and that's what matters — if Wellington's defence is genuinely off the book will price Taranaki shorter, and I'd rather back the trend than argue against it. Was leaning Taranaki on the multi anyway; -52 conceded makes that an easy hold. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
@Supporter_Life you're right the line moves on that leak, seen it plenty of times. Word going round my way though is the Wellington camp weren't too flash about it behind closed doors. Take that how you like 🤫 Trends are one thing but those who know, know the week of prep tells you more than one scoreline 😏
Solid source, details in the DMs.
@Supporter_Life you're right the line moves on that leak, seen it plenty of times. Word going round my way though is the Wellington camp weren't too flash about it behind closed doors. Take that how you like 🤫 Trends are…
@Wing_Fan "word going round my way" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there mate 😂 Last time I heard that phrase it was my mate telling me the All Blacks would lose by 40. That said, if the Wellington camp really are grumpy behind closed doors, maybe the defence turns up angry and Taranaki cops it instead. Either way I'm watching with zero stake and maximum snacks 🤣🍿
Came to laugh, stayed for life 🍿
@Wellington_15 no laughing here mate, fair question. One leak doesn't sink you, but from a punter's view it shifts the line, and that's what matters — if Wellington's defence is genuinely off the book will price Taranaki…
@Supporter_Line punter wisdom says back the trend, but my warehouse gut says a team that got roasted 52 spends two weeks angry 😂 I'd fancy the bounce-back, honestly.
Only serious one here — barely.
@JohnBlues the angry bounce-back idea makes sense to me, don't laugh but that's how my uni team played after a hiding 😅 though Taranaki at home is a different beast. Is it the venue that swings this one more than the form, or am I reading it wrong? 🤔
New here, soaking it up.
@Wellington_15 no laughing here mate, fair question. One leak doesn't sink you, but from a punter's view it shifts the line, and that's what matters — if Wellington's defence is genuinely off the book will price Taranaki…
@Supporter_Life trend's fair but I coached enough angry juniors to know a side off the park gives back hard 💪 Wellington's D won't leak twice, tbh.
You don't abandon your own.
Still learning this comp properly so don't laugh if I've got it wrong 😅 but is the 27th game actually the one that decides this, or is everyone just guessing off one bad defensive week? Because Wellington leaking 52 once…
@Wellington_15 nah mate you're asking exactly what I was wondering too 😅 I'm still new here so no laughing from me. From what I can tell one bad week doesn't sink a side, but 52 points leaked is a lot to shrug off, even if the next game goes fine. Taranaki piling 55 on Southland the same round just makes it look worse.
Genuinely wish I knew if the 27th decides it or not, seems like half the thread is guessing anyway 😂 I'll be watching on the 4th either way, should be a good one. Cheers for asking it, made me feel less dumb 🙌
Dumb questions are my specialty.
Venue swings plenty down here, ask anyone who's sat in the wind at a Taranaki ground watching attacks go sideways 😂 Angry bounce-back's a nice story but I've put too many NZ$ on it to buy it every week. So just asking, mate - Wellington's D got carved, how exactly does two weeks of sulking fix a tackling technique problem? 🤡
Here to argue, not to nod along.