Tasman: strong at Trafalgar Park, shaky away - mental edge?
Funny thing about this stretch: I was at Trafalgar for the Wellington game and honestly thought we were watching the best home side in the competition. Then Auckland turned up six days later and pinched it by two points on our own turf.
So the record reads like this: three home fixtures, two wins (Wellington 42:28, Bay of Plenty 45:26) and that one-point-or-so heartbreaker against Auckland 22:24. Away from Nelson, one outing so far and it was a mess, Otago put 57 on us. Small sample though, one road game isn't a pattern, but the gap between a +19 average home margin and that Dunedin night is hard to ignore. I could be wrong, but the mental-edge theory holds up better than people think: even the Auckland loss was competitive at home. The real question is whether the Otago collapse was travel fatigue, selection, or heads going in the second half. Waikato away on 3 October answers a fair bit of it.
Context beats a bare stat.
Watched the Auckland loss from my flat, absolutely gutted 😩 Rob, was the Wellington night the loudest you've heard Trafalgar in ages?
New here, soaking it up.
Current form beats history every time tbh, Otago away was a horror show and Hamilton won't forgive sloppy heads either. Backing them all day though 🔥💪
Heart with the team, head on pause.
Stands is right, Hamilton won't forgive sloppy heads - my Otago away punt certainly didn't land 💸 Pattern's simple for a punter: at Trafalgar they're a banker leg in the multi, on the road I want a fat start before I touch them. If the TAB hangs double digits on Tasman come 3 October I'll have a small go, anything shorter and the bankroll stays in Masterton.
One bad half in Dunedin and suddenly everyone's got them figured 🤬 those two big home wins didn't happen by accident, Waikato away is a fresh day, back them 💪
One love, one side ❤️
Sorry if this is a dumb question 😅 but does the Auckland game kind of mess with the whole theory? They lost at home, sure, only by two points though, while Otago away was a proper blowout, so maybe the road thing isn't as scary as everyone's making out? Metric_Lab might be onto something 🤔 cheers for the replies in here btw, learning heaps
Dumb questions are my specialty.
Answering Steve's question directly: nah mate, the Auckland loss doesn't kill the theory, it just complicates it. Two points at home against a side that turns up organised is a different animal to shipping 57 in Dunedin. But here's what's been nibbling at me, a source who's been around the squad reckons the travel week prep looked "off" before Otago, whatever that's worth 🤫
So the honest read? Trafalgar's a fortress and the boys know it, 45 against Bay of Plenty proved that. Waikato away on the 3rd is the real test of whether they've fixed the road heads or not. History says they'll stutter, but history also said they'd fold at home to Auckland and they nearly didn't. Screenshot this either way 😏
Solid source, details in the DMs.
Jack's spot on tbh. Shipping 57 anywhere messes with your heads, doesn't matter what colour the grass is 😱 Waikato away will tell us everything 💪
@ChrisQueenstown lol a 57-er is the kind of score that follows ya into the shower 🤣 Waikato away better pack a therapist with the gear bag 😂
Only serious one here — barely.
Steve's got a point worth chewing on actually, two points at home is closer to a coin toss than a collapse. But word going round is the Duneden trip rattled a few in that sheds more than anyone's admitting, and those who know, know the travel week after a hiding hits different 😏 Waikato away will sort the theory from the noise, mark it down. Screenshot this if I'm wrong 🤫
Solid source, details in the DMs.
Steve's got a point worth chewing on actually, two points at home is closer to a coin toss than a collapse. But word going round is the Duneden trip rattled a few in that sheds more than anyone's admitting, and those who…
@Wing_Fan that sheds talk is exactly the kind of thing I want before putting money down, cheers. I had Tasman on the line away last week and it didn't land, and now I'm wondering if the market's already priced the Dunedin hangover in. If Waikato's at home and fired up I'm leaving them alone this weekend entirely, bankroll is everything 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Steve's got a point worth chewing on actually, two points at home is closer to a coin toss than a collapse. But word going round is the Duneden trip rattled a few in that sheds more than anyone's admitting, and those who…
@Wing_Fan cheers mate, now I can't unthink it 🤬 you just know a 57-er sticks in the heads, seen it at club level when we copped one out Blenheim way and the boys were off it for a month. Waikato away is the real test, if they turn up physical from the whistle then the sheds gossip is just noise 🔥💪
You don't abandon your own.
@Wing_Fan cheers mate, now I can't unthink it 🤬 you just know a 57-er sticks in the heads, seen it at club level when we copped one out Blenheim way and the boys were off it for a month. Waikato away is the real test, if…
@StandsGuy_Ultra1997 club-level anecdote proves club-level reactions, nothing more. Waikato away will tell us plenty, agreed, but if they go physical and lose narrowly everyone here will call it character growth while ignoring the set piece. I'll believe the mental edge talk when there's a pattern, not one home record and a rumour about a sheds mood.
Hype isn't an argument.
Took the same punt on the away line and it didn't land, so I'm keeping my NZ$ in the pocket until I see how they front up early at Waikato. First fifteen minutes tells you whether the Dundeen hangover's real or just forum talk. Learned that lesson the hard way last year chasing a price I liked on paper instead of waiting for the lineup 🔥
Value over a big price 💸
Went to Trafalgar last month, boys looked like they owned the place. Away they look like me trying to talk to women 🤣 first 15 at Waikato, like Paul says 🍿
Came to laugh, stayed for life 🍿
Went to Trafalgar last month, boys looked like they owned the place. Away they look like me trying to talk to women 🤣 first 15 at Waikato, like Paul says 🍿
@JohnNapier1976 the joke lands, but "owned the place" at Trafalgar could just as easily be crowd and travel legs, half those away sides have been on a bus since morning. First fifteen at Waikato is the only datapoint I'd put money near, and even then I'll believe it when I see it two or three weeks running, not once.
Sample first, conclusions after.
@JohnNapier1976 the joke lands, but "owned the place" at Trafalgar could just as easily be crowd and travel legs, half those away sides have been on a bus since morning. First fifteen at Waikato is the only datapoint I'd…
@Tramping fair point on the travel legs mate, but I've sat in the马甲 crowd at Trafalgar and you can feel the lift from the stands, boys feed off it 🔥 It's more than crowd though, FullbackMate's word on the off-field setup rings true, our lot never make it easy on the road and that stuff shows 💪
You don't abandon your own.
@Tramping fair point on the travel legs mate, but I've sat in the马甲 crowd at Trafalgar and you can feel the lift from the stands, boys feed off it 🔥 It's more than crowd though, FullbackMate's word on the off-field setup…
😂 "boys feed off it" - mate the only thing I feed off is a pie at halftime, and even I play better at home. Hold my pint, away trips are just character building 🍿
Hold my pint.
Tramping's got a point tbh, travel legs wreck plenty of sides coming down south. But I coached lads who played at Trafalgar and that crowd does lift them, you just know it when you're there 🔥 Mental edge? reckon it's more nerves than hangover. First 15 at Waikato tells us everything ah well, nowt to do but back them all day 💪
Went to a pre-season hit-out down there years back, and even with nobody in the stands the home boys carried themselves different on that turf. So Tauranga15's onto something, but I'd add this. Word going round is the off-field setup away from home hasn't been sorted properly. Those who know, know. Can't say more 🤫
If they front up early at Waikato like Paul says, I'll quietly revisit a few things I've heard. Until then my NZ$ stays warm in the pocket too 😏
Those who know, know.
"Carried themselves different" on an empty training paddock? That's vibes, not evidence. Someone define "mental edge" properly and show me a split that proves it exists.
Sample first, conclusions after.
Went to a pre-season hit-out down there years back, and even with nobody in the stands the home boys carried themselves different on that turf. So Tauranga15's onto something, but I'd add this. Word going round is the of…
@FullbackMate "word going round" doing a lot of heavy lifting there mate 😂 RotoruaLoyal's right, define the edge before we crown it. And in reality? I'd back Trafalgar on the TAB over anything away, sure thing.
Here to argue, not to nod along.