Waikato giving points at home to Tasman on October 3
Watched Tasman put 45 on Bay of Plenty and then looked at this line - yeah, it's too rich for me. Waikato scraped past Manawatu 36:27 at home and still get favoured off one result each way. I'd want the line a good 2-3 points tighter before I touch it; as it stands my NZ$ stays in the pocket, lesson from last weekend when I loaded up on a similar inflated favourite. 💸
I could be wrong, but home ground usually prices in more than people think, though I'd still want the line a shade tighter. Small sample though.
Context beats a bare stat.
Home ground pricing in more than people think - sure, but by how much? That's the bit nobody quantifies. Waikato conceded 27 at home to Manawatu; Tasman put 45 on BoP six days later. One result each, agreed, but the direction of both results points the same way and the line still leans Mooloo. I'll take the small sample caveat on condition that someone actually shows me what home advantage is worth in this year's NPC. A points figure, a source, anything. Otherwise "home ground prices in more" is gut feeling wearing a suit. If Tasman beat Auckland by two away... wait, that one was at home too, a two-point loss five days before the BoP rout. Form curve is rising. I'm on Tasman + whatever they're giving, with a modest stake I can afford to lose.Home advantage prices in more than people think, fine, by how much though? Nobody ever puts a number on it. Waikato conceded 27 at home to Manawatu. Tasman put 45 on BoP six days later, and a week before that lost to Auckland by two at home.
Hype isn't an argument.
Tasman lost to Auckland at home the week before smashing BoP, so which side of them are we pricing? 😏 I'd take Waikato giving points, just asking how much.
Here to argue, not to nod along.
Had a yarn with someone close to the Mooloo setup last week and let's just say the mood around the place isn't exactly "laying 15 on anyone" 😏 Word going round is they're treating Tasman with more respect than the TAB seems to. That Auckland loss? Don't read too much into that one, if you catch my drift 🤫
Those who know, know.
FullbackMate's mate works out of the Mooloo camp now? 😂 What's next, the physio slides you a team sheet over a pint?
Anyway I'm half with LockLegend on this one. Tasman losing at home to Auckland then tonking BoP a week later tells me you've got no idea which mob turns up, so asking Waikato to lay double figures is silly money. I put NZ$20 on Tasman +whatever last NPC round purely off a hunch and it paid my meat raffle for the month, so trust me, I back these fuzzy margins 😏 My caveat: Waikato at home in Hamilton in October, wet pitch, stiff breeze off the Waikato river, points come hard and the Mooloo pack grinds you down regardless of what the form guide says. So yeah, line should be tighter, but if it drifts out even a tick more before Friday, that's where I'd be looking, not the other way.
Anyone actually seen what the TAB have bumped it to since the BoP result, or are we all guessing off Monday's numbers? 🤡💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
To Chur's question: two different Tasmans, simple as that. The Auckland one at home on the 18th and the BoP one on the 24th. Problem for the TAB is they only get priced on the most recent, and the market's clearly still leaning Mooloo home comfort.
My read: Waikato gave points off a 36:27 scrap against Manawatu, that win covered but never comfortable. I've had the line eat me before laying big at home in the NPC, so this round I'm going small. Either Tasman getting points or just the head-to-head at odds. Kept my multi to the odd try scorer this week and left the margin bands alone, didn't want a third leg I don't trust. If the line tightens by Friday that tells you the sharp money agrees with SweetAsNZ. Until then my NZ$20 says the Mako keep it inside the number 😄🍻
Value over a big price 💸
To Chur's question: two different Tasmans, simple as that. The Auckland one at home on the 18th and the BoP one on the 24th. Problem for the TAB is they only get priced on the most recent, and the market's clearly still …
@Jackal nah mate, the market pricing on one game's got history, TAB once had me convinced a team was cooked and they turned up laughing the next week, cost me a cheeky $20 multi 😂 Me, I'm just here to watch whoever shows up in Hamilton and eat my words either way 🤣
Came to laugh, stayed for life 🍿
@Jackal fair summary, but "two different Tasmans" is doing a lot of work there, two games is a small sample, and home/away splits swing wildly early in the season. Before I take the Mooloo at home line on faith I'd want the actual away record and who's in the squad for Hamilton. Receipts please.
Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
To Chur's question: two different Tasmans, simple as that. The Auckland one at home on the 18th and the BoP one on the 24th. Problem for the TAB is they only get priced on the most recent, and the market's clearly still …
@Jackal yeah nah that rings true, saw it plenty coaching the juniors too 😅 one good week and everyone forgets the bad one. Mooloo at home though? I'd still back us 🔥💪
You don't abandon your own.
@Queenstown_Mad don't laugh but I've only just started following the NPC properly 😅 is Mooloo at home usually that reliable though? I went to a game in Hamilton last year and the crowd alone felt worth the drive from Rotorua. Also Scrum10's point about receipts makes me keen to see the actual away numbers before I'd dare put a few NZ$ on it 🙏
New here, soaking it up.
That Auckland loss confuses me too 😅 but they looked like a different team six days later vs BoP. So which Tasman shows up in Hamilton? Explain like I'm five, someone 🙏
@Chur don't laugh but I had to re-read the thread twice before it clicked 😅 from what I get, Tasman at home vs away are basically two different teams, and everyone's pricing them on the BoP game only. I'd be scared of them either way if I was Waikato, that Auckland loss means nothing when a team is angry haha. Thanks Jackal, that actually made sense to me 🙏