Counties Manukau beat Northland 22:19 last week
Was at Navigation Homes for the Otago thumping and the Steppers looked lost that night, so the 22:19 scrap home from Northland surprised me a bit. Hawke's Bay got turned over in Napier 17:32 by Bay of Plenty, so neither side arrives with form you'd write home about. I could be wrong, but home ground edges Counties Manukau for me; keep the line small in the multi and pick a fullback or wing for first try. 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
That Otago hiding (21:50) still worries me way more than the Northland scrape 🔥 Both sides wobbling, but home ground might just tip it. Small punt on Counties, first try scorer is a lottery tbh 😱
You don't abandon your own.
Agreed with MaulTragic on the worry part, that Otago game is the one that should price Counties as underdogs, the Northland win was more Northland losing it than the Steppers winning it.
Head-to-head wise these two have always been a proper southern-MidNorth grudge fixture, Magpies-Steppers games tend to be tight and ugly, which suits a punter taking the line rather than the straight H2H. Hawke's Bay away from Napier is where I lean though, their 17:32 at Bay of Plenty suggests the travel hit them hard, and Counties at home in Pukekohe usually turn up for this one. My multi: Counties head-to-head, take whatever the line gives me above 4 points, and skip first try scorer entirely, lotteries like that ate my bankroll twice this season, NZ$20 saved is NZ$20 landed elsewhere 💸
Backing the Steppers all day 💪 the Northland scrap showed heaps of ticker even if Otago ran over the top of us. Home ground on 3 October and I reckon the boys lift 🔥 thrown a wee NZ$10 on Counties in my multi with the TAB, first try is a total lottery tbh 😱 ah well, nowt to do but get behind them 🙌
Tauranga15, that Northland win was more Northland butchering it than the Steppers earning it, so I'm not sold on the ticker argument. Hawke's Bay were flat against Bay of Plenty too, but I'd trust the Magpies to cover the line at the book before I'd take Counties straight up after that 21:50 home hiding. Kept my multi to a small NZ$10 leg with them on the + line. First try scorer stays out of it, pure lottery 😭💸
Value over a big price 💸
Still sore we let that one slip up north 😤 but credit where due, Counties scrapped harder than us in the last twenty. yeah the Otago car crash looms large, hard out, yet if the Steppers carry that grind-it-out attitude onto their own patch I'll chuck a fiver (well, NZ$20 lol) on them plus the points in the multi 🔥 for first try I genuinely have no clue, pure coin flip 😱
You don't abandon your own.
Confused how everyone trusts Hawke's Bay when they got beaten by 15 away too 😅 if Northland "lost it", who actually wins on 3 October? Still learning this, thanks 🙏
Dumb questions are my specialty.
Wellington_15, fair question, and the honest answer is neither side has earned your trust yet. Counties got pumped at home by Otago, Hawke's Bay got pumped away by Bay of Plenty, one decent escape in Whangārei each way doesn't make a trend.
If I'm forced to pick, I'd lean Magpies on the line. Northland lost that match more than Counties won it, and a side that concedes 50 at its own ground rarely turns into a fortress a fortnight later. Hawke's Bay's 17:32 was away, which travels slightly better. First try scorer is a coin toss as always. I skip that leg entirely, one lucky bounce and the multi's dead. Keep stakes small, NZ$10 max on this sort of guesswork, and I'll believe the Steppers are the real deal when I see it at Navigation Homes.
Hype isn't an argument.
Dumb question maybe 😅 but if both teams keep getting pumped, why's the line even favouring anyone? Queenstown51, thanks, that actually makes sense 🙏 I'll just watch this one instead of betting.