Counties Manukau just edged Northland 22:19
Took a small home start here would be too generous, no chance. That 21:50 loss to Otago at Navigation Homes is still fresh in my head and it cost me a leg of the multi, wasn't pretty. Then they scrape past Northland 22:19 in Whangarei a week later and suddenly they're priced like a settled side? The line moved nowhere near enough for my liking.
I'll wait on this one until after Hawke's Bay front up against Taranaki on the 27th. If the Magpies get beaten well again like they did at Bay of Plenty (17:32), maybe Counties deserve a bit of respect at home. Right now I'm reading this as close to a coin flip, and I don't touch coin flips with my bankroll unless the price is fat. Lesson from last weekend: don't pay for a name when the form says otherwise 💸
Two results is the whole sample here, and one of them is a 29-point home hiding, so I'd hedge before calling the line generous. I could be wrong, but when I dig a bit deeper the 22:19 in Whangarei worries me as a market signal, a one-point escape against Northland usually gets priced as a coin flip, not as form. Compare it with the Otago game: 21:50 at Navigation Homes tells you the defence can fall apart badly at home, which matters more for a small start than the away grind did.
Where I'd push back slightly on SweetAsNZ: away form and home form are different metrics, and Counties' escape was on the road. Hawke's Bay's last completed outing was a 17:32 loss at Bay of Plenty on 19 September, so they're not exactly arriving with momentum either — the Taranaki game on 27 September will tell us more. If the TAB sits the line tighter than the market expects, my spreadsheet says the value flips to the away side. Small sample though, three data points total. 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
Rob, two results is exactly the sample, so which one are you trusting? A 29-point thumping carries more signal than a one-point scrape. Line looks generous to me.
Sample first, conclusions after.
Rob, sure thing mate, coin flip is exactly why you don't touch the line 😏 I'll take my NZ$ elsewhere, Otago game says plenty.
Here to argue, not to nod along.
Which result carried more signal, Rotorua? By your logic a team that lost by 29 at home deserves a tighter line than one that won away. Show me the data, not vibes.
Hype isn't an argument.
Backed Counties off the TAB last week and the Whangarei game told me more than the scoreline, won away where the Otago thumping was at home, and away wins get priced differently by the sportsbook. 😅 I'm leaving the line alone though; two results is bugger-all sample and my bankroll doesn't need another coin flip leg after that multi went up in smoke. Sit this one out and watch how the market moves once Hawke's Bay front up to Taranaki on the 27th.
Value over a big price 💸
KevFan's on the money here. The line's not the problem, the volatility is. A team that ships 50 at home to Otago then scrapes past Northland by three is a coin flip in every sense, and I don't pay for coin flips with my bankroll. Hawke's Bay got touched up 17:32 in Rotorua too, so the TAB's got nothing clean to price off either side. Sit this one out, put your weekend NZ$ in a multi somewhere the form actually reads. 💸
Value over a big price 💸