Manawatu just put 40 on Auckland away
Sat through the whole Turbos-Auckland game with a mate who supports Auckland, and his face by the 60th minute was worth the trip up alone. 40 points away at Eden Park a week after coughing up 36 in Hamilton, that swing tells you something about this side's ceiling and their floor at the same time.
Canterbury's form line is quieter but tidier: 25:24 over North Harbour away, then a comfortable 34:21 at home to Southland. They're winning tight, which usually means decent game management. I've had a look at my own table and the Manawatu number that stands out is those two away games sitting 13 points apart in outcome within six days, volatility like that makes the +line/under-12 margin combo a fair shout, though I could be wrong if Canterbury just strangle this into a grind. Small sample though, three games each. I'm leaning similar to you, with a small stake on at the bookmaker rather than anything sizeable. 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
That 40 in Auckland was fun but Canterbury snuck past Harbour by one then beat Southland by 13, they keep finding ways to win ugly. Both sides leaking points though, so Manawatu +line with margin under 12 in the multi sits fine with me, I had a similar leg land last weekend 💸 tighter line than a slab call, but value's there.
Value over a big price 💸
My old man's a Turbos fan so I've copped years of grief whenever Canterbury belt them, which is most seasons 😂 always felt like big brother vs little brother to me - red and blacks usually just find another gear late. That said I'll happily ride the +line leg with youse purely so he can't smug-text me Saturday night 🤣
Came to laugh, stayed for life 🍿
Copped that grief for years too John, so count me IN for a bit of payback 🔥 Turbos at home on 3 October, boys absolutely buzzing after Eden Park, just know they can go with Canterbury if the forwards front up. Threw Manawatu +line into my multi as well, sweat on margin under 12 for sure 💪🙌
You don't abandon your own.
SweetAsNZ called it right imo, Canterbury just grind you down late and that's what scares me 😱 I've watched Turbos at home plenty of times, crowd gets up and the boys do front up physically, but that last 20 against a red and black side? you just know they're gonna find another gear 💪 Manawatu +line lands easy for me, margin under 12 is where I'd sweat it 🙌
You don't abandon your own.
Last 20 worries me too, but the line's the thing. Canterbury scraped past North Harbour by one and only handled Southland by 13, so I'm not convinced they blow Turbos away in Palmy. Manawatu put 40 up at Eden Park a week after losing to Waikato, that's a genuine roll-on, not a fluke. I've got the under-12 leg on my multi, hedged slightly because red and blacks love a late try that wrecks the margin band 😭💸
Value over a big price 💸
CantabNZ857's read is the closest to honest here. One blowout away performance against Auckland doesn't erase a 27:36 loss to Waikato a week earlier, and Canterbury's two wins were ugly but they won them. That's the bit the Turbos faithful keep skipping past, grinding out a 25:24 at North Harbour tells you more about a side than one golden evening.
On merit I'd say Manawatu +line is defensible, particularly at home in Palmy. But margin under 12? That leg I'll believe it when I see it. SweetAsNZ's point about Canterbury closing games is fair, and if the red and blacks get in front with a quarter to go, they don't do favours. Take the line leg, leave the margin alone, or accept the coin flip. Either way, open outcome - I'm not paying for conviction on a team that produced one good half of consistent rugby this month.
Hype isn't an argument.
Last 20 worries me too, but the line's the thing. Canterbury scraped past North Harbour by one and only handled Southland by 13, so I'm not convinced they blow Turbos away in Palmy. Manawatu put 40 up at Eden Park a week…
@CantabNZ857 two data points on Canterbury's margins is thin ice, Auckland at Eden Park tells me more about Auckland than about Manawatu. And "genuine roll-on" needs more than one away game to prove. I've watched Turbos sides look world-beaters one week and switch off the next; Waikato loss is the more recent trend, not the outlier. Show me them doing it twice before I touch the line.
Fair point @Supporter88, one mad 40 at Eden Park proves Auckland are munted more than the Turbos are world-beaters 😂 Still reckon Palmy crowd makes it spicy tho, heard the boys already sniffing a scalp 🍿
Only serious one here — barely.
Fair point @Supporter88, one mad 40 at Eden Park proves Auckland are munted more than the Turbos are world-beaters 😂 Still reckon Palmy crowd makes it spicy tho, heard the boys already sniffing a scalp 🍿
@JohnBlues made me laugh with "munted" 😂 but yeah one game can flatter anyone. Also answering Wellington_15. Pretty sure it's in Palmy Saturday, home advantage Turbos 🙏
@Queenstown51 mostly with you, ugly wins still count in this comp. But word going round down here is the Turbos outfit have been building something since preseason, and those who know, know 😏 wouldn't touch that line mys…
@JoshBeliever "pretty sure" isn't much of an answer for someone trying to plan a Saturday. Either it's in Palmy or it isn't, check the draw before you hand out advice. To be fair to you, yes, it's at CET Arena, home advantage Turbos, but next time confirm it properly.
As for "one game can flatter anyone", agreed, which is exactly why I'm not reading anything into the Auckland result either way. Forty at Eden Park tells me Auckland were woeful on the night. It tells me nothing about whether Manawatu can back it up against Canterbury, who will actually turn up and tackle. The Turbos have teased us before after a big win, then put in a dud the following week. I'll believe the hype when I see it in the second half Saturday, not in a thread full of vibes and screenshots.
Sample first, conclusions after.
CantabNZ857's read is the closest to honest here. One blowout away performance against Auckland doesn't erase a 27:36 loss to Waikato a week earlier, and Canterbury's two wins were ugly but they won them. That's the bit …
@Queenstown51 mostly with you, ugly wins still count in this comp. But word going round down here is the Turbos outfit have been building something since preseason, and those who know, know 😏 wouldn't touch that line myself. Screenshot this if Palmy gets loud Saturday.
Solid source, details in the DMs.
Sorry if this is a dumb question 😅 but who actually gets home advantage Saturday, Palmy? Keen to catch it either way, still learning this comp's rotation 🙏
Dumb questions are my specialty.
@Wellington_15 not a dumb question at all mate, rotation had me scratching my head too early days. Yeah it's at CET Arena in Palmy, Turbos with home advantage. My source reckons the crowd down there will be worth the trip alone, that place gets humming when the Turbos are on 🤫
Solid source, details in the DMs.
@Wellington_15 not a dumb question at all mate, rotation had me scratching my head too early days. Yeah it's at CET Arena in Palmy, Turbos with home advantage. My source reckons the crowd down there will be worth the tri…
@Wing_Fan "my source reckons" 😂 mate you've been reading too many tipping threads. Crowd at CET is decent when the Turbos turn up, sure, but after they just put 40 on Auckland the TAB line will have everyone piling on - that's when these games turn into a lottery, not sport. Anyone actually taken the Turbos at short odds and been burned before, or is that just me 🤡💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
@Wing_Fan "my source reckons" 😂 mate you've been reading too many tipping threads. Crowd at CET is decent when the Turbos turn up, sure, but after they just put 40 on Auckland the TAB line will have everyone piling on - …
@Napier_Legend1980 piling on is exactly why I'll wait for the line to settle before I touch it. Got burned last year backing a team off a big win, margin was way overblown 😭
Bankroll discipline wins.
@Napier_Legend1980 piling on is exactly why I'll wait for the line to settle before I touch it. Got burned last year backing a team off a big win, margin was way overblown 😭
@KevFan that makes sense, thanks for explaining 😅 I'm new to the TAB stuff and would've probably done exactly what you got burned by. So the line gets worse for everyone once word spreads about a big win? Cheers, got it now (I think) 🏉
Dumb questions are my specialty.
@SteveAuckland you've got the gist of it, the line shifts once the crowd piles in 😏 funny thing though, word going round is the Turbos' prep this week hasn't been as clean as the scoreline suggested... those who know, know. I'd hold mynz$ till kickoff on this one 🤫
Solid source, details in the DMs.
@KevFan that makes sense, thanks for explaining 😅 I'm new to the TAB stuff and would've probably done exactly what you got burned by. So the line gets worse for everyone once word spreads about a big win? Cheers, got it …
@Napier_Legend1980 mate the TAB line going daft after one big win is exactly when I get nervous tbh 😅 backed the Turbos all season through thick and thin but even I know our lot never make it easy, remember the couple of times I chucked $20 on them off a big win and they went flat as a tack? KevFan is onto it, wait for the line to settle 🔥
Heart with the team, head on pause.
@StandsGuyLoyal seen it too many times myself, mate - club down here had a similar season once, lads flat as a tack the week after everyone topped them up. Word going round about their prep being a bit loose isn't nothing either 🤫 I'd sit tight till kickoff before touching that line.
Those who know, know.
@StandsGuyLoyal seen it too many times myself, mate - club down here had a similar season once, lads flat as a tack the week after everyone topped them up. Word going round about their prep being a bit loose isn't nothin…
@FullbackMate "word going round" from who, exactly? Same blokes who "knew things" last week before Manawatu went and hung 40 on Auckland? Source on that, or is it just vibes dressed up as intel. I'll believe the flat-prep story when I see it, otherwise sitting on NZ$ until kickoff is just another way of saying nothing.
Sample first, conclusions after.