Northland can beat anyone except the teams they should beat
Fifty-two in Wellington one week, then rock up home to Semenoff and lose to Counties Manukau by three. That's the whole Northland experience in two results, and anyone backing them as a contender on the TAB is donating money. They followed it up with that North Harbour mess too, 42:57, fifty-seven conceded. Fifty. Seven.
I've had a soft spot for the Taniwha for years, but this is a lottery side, and pretending otherwise is what gets punters burned every NPC season. So here's my awkward question for the believers: when Southland roll up on 2 October, which Northland team turns up? Because if you honestly know the answer, I've got a multi to sell you. 😂💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
Fifty-two in Wellington one week, then rock up home to Semenoff and lose to Counties Manukau by three. That's the whole Northland experience in two results, and anyone backing them as a contender on the TAB is donating m…
Two bad weeks and suddenly every punter in Napier is a prophet. The Wellington win was real, 52 points away from home doesn't happen by accident. My concern is the Counties Manukau loss at Semenoff, agreed, but I'll reserve judgement until Southland on 2 October; if they turn up flat again, then you're right and I'll say so.
Hype isn't an argument.
Queenstown51 called it. Every punter writes us off after one bad arvo at Semenoff and forgets 52 in Wellington like it never happened 😤 our lot never make it easy but that North Harbour shambles was a one-off, mark my words Southland on 2 Oct gets a fired-up Taniwha and the whole thread goes quiet 💪🔥
Heart with the team, head on pause.
I went back through the five results StandsGuyLoyal is waving around, and I have to side with Napier_Legend1980 on this one. The pattern isn't two bad weeks. It's that Northland's three good performances came away or against top-table opposition, while both home games at Semenoff tell a different story. Wellington away they put up 52 points; Waikato at home they controlled properly, 34:17, that one actually fits the contender label. But Counties Manukau at Semenoff? Nineteen points in their own yard against a side they should handle, and then North Harbour hung 57 on them. Depending how you count it, that's roughly a 38-point swing between their best and worst weeks. Compare that to the Wellington 52 and the Waikato 34, the ceiling is real, but the floor is sitting under the home posts. Queenstown51's right to wait for Southland on 2 October, though I could be wrong: if they can't raise themselves for a home fixture against a beatable side, the away-day brilliance is just noise.
Context beats a bare stat.
RobFirstFive calling that a pattern took me straight back to the old NPC days when Northland used to turn up at Semenoff and hand whoever was fancy that week a hiding, then lose the next one to a team nobody rated. Some things never change. I learned the lesson years back and stopped putting them in multis as a banker; these days it's head-to-head away and small stakes only, saved my bankroll plenty of times 💸 That 52 in Wellington paid me nicely but I didn't chase them the following week, and Counties Manukau at 19:22 proved the point.
Funny how everyone forgot North Harbour hung 57 on them before the "two bad weeks" narrative kicked in. Contender? Sure thing, mate 😂 I've got NZ$50 saying Southland tests that theory.
Here to argue, not to nod along.
LockLegend take that NZ$50 to the TAB then 😂 Southland away on 2 Oct is a different beast, wait till the Taniwha show up 🔥
Cos I've coached enough juniors to know. That Counties loss hurt way more than Harbour ever did 😤 Southland away on the 2nd, they'll turn up 💪😤🔥
You don't abandon your own.
SweetAsNZ, mate, funny you say some things never change, a source close to the Taniwha camp told me the Counties week wasn't as simple as it looked 🤫 Same side that put 52 on Wellington, remember. Southland away, 2 Oct... you'll all find out soon. Screenshot this 😏
Solid source, details in the DMs.
Took Northland on the head-to-head against Counties that weekend and it didn't land, so trust me I'm not defending them out of loyalty 😭 That NZ$25 leg was carrying half my multi.
But here's where I lean: as a punter I want the team with the ceiling, and 52 in Wellington plus 34 on Waikato says the ceiling is real. The 57 from Harbour was an away shocker I'd already written off, the Counties one stings because it was home, sure. The trouble is you can't price a team that's either brilliant or asleep - the TAB clearly knows it, the line moves all over the place every week. My rule after too many slips like this: value over a big price. If Southland on 2 Oct opens with Northland as slight underdogs on the road, that's where I'd put my money, small. If they're favourites, stay well clear. Contender tag? Earn it against Southland first, then we talk. 🔥
Value over a big price 💸
Paul I felt that one, my NZ$30 leg died with that Counties loss too 😭 Only way I'm touching them again is Southland away on the 2nd, but at what price? If the TAB keeps hanging a short head-to-head on a side that swings …
@PaulOpenside same, my Counties leg carked it too 😭 Rule of mine now: no Northland head-to-head until they string two decent weeks together. Bankroll is everything.
Value over a big price 💸
Paul I felt that one, my NZ$30 leg died with that Counties loss too 😭 Only way I'm touching them again is Southland away on the 2nd, but at what price? If the TAB keeps hanging a short head-to-head on a side that swings from 52 in Wellington to 19 at home, that's a trap, not value. Shorter line for a team you can't trust, where's the ROI in that?
Value over a big price 💸
Paul I felt that one, my NZ$30 leg died with that Counties loss too 😭 Only way I'm touching them again is Southland away on the 2nd, but at what price? If the TAB keeps hanging a short head-to-head on a side that swings …
@Supporter_Life sorry dumb question maybe but what does "trap, not value" actually mean here? 😅 I only lost NZ$10 on that Counties game and even I was gutted. Guessing you're saying the TAB price looks too good to be true for a team this up and down? Cheers if someone can explain simply 🙏
Dumb questions are my specialty.
@Supporter_Life sorry dumb question maybe but what does "trap, not value" actually mean here? 😅 I only lost NZ$10 on that Counties game and even I was gutted. Guessing you're saying the TAB price looks too good to be tru…
Not dumb at all Steve, I was wondering the same 😅 So basically the price looks easy money but the TAB knows how dodgy Northland are, that's why it's short. Cheers @Supporter_Life, that makes sense?