Otago or Auckland on 1 October
Watched Otago fall apart up in Albany last week after that 50-point romp over Counties, and Auckland somehow chucked away a home game against Manawatu the night before - both sides arrive at the House of Pain on 1 October with something to prove. I could be wrong, but Otago's bounce-back pattern (huge win, flat loss) worries me less than Auckland's defence leaking 40 at home. If the line sits anywhere near level, home ground tips me towards Otago 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
Watched both these losses hurt my multi last weekend, so this one's personal. Otago went from 50:21 at Counties to 21:32 up in Albany in nine days, that swing screams inconsistency, while Auckland shipping 40 at home to Manawatu after a tight 24:22 at Tasman isn't much steadier. Reckon the line moves toward Otago at the House of Pain and I'll take it, small stake though after last week trimmed the bankroll 💸
Otago by a mile mate, backing them all day at the House of Pain 💪🔥 yeah nah that Harbour loss stung but the 50 we hung on Counties shows what they can do when the forwards front up. Auckland shipping 40 at home to Manawatu?? 🤬😂 if our lot turn up early this is done, through thick and thin boys, see you in Dunedin 🙌
Heart with the team, head on pause.
Lost my multi on both those defeats, lesson learned about stacking fresh losses 😭 This time I'm taking Otago at home - that 50:21 at Counties shows their ceiling, and Auckland's defence leaking 40 to Manawatu doesn't survive the House of Pain. Small punt only 💸
Bankroll discipline wins.
Mmm, word going round the Auckland camp hasn't been flash since that Manawatu mess 😏 sure, the 50 they put on Counties tells you Otago's ceiling, but nine days later Albany happened, didn't it. Source reckons the visitors' travel week up north sorted a few things out. Take that how you like 🤫 I'm keeping my TAB slip light either way.
Solid source, details in the DMs.
Word from an insider, eh? Last tip I took off a bloke in a taxi cost me NZ$40 of my multi 😭 Auckland shipping 40 at home tells me more than your "source". 💸
Value over a big price 💸
@PaulOpenside haha taxi tips are dodgy alright 😅 maybe I'm wrong but leaks like that usually last longer than one travel week, eh? 🤔
New here, soaking it up.
Word from an insider, eh? Last tip I took off a bloke in a taxi cost me NZ$40 of my multi 😭 Auckland shipping 40 at home tells me more than your "source". 💸
@PaulOpenside taxi blokes and real sources are worlds apart, mate 🤫 that 40-point line smells set up to trap the keen punters. All I'll say: watch who misses the team bus south. 😏
Those who know, know.
Otago's defence would worry me more than Auckland's leak, and that Albany no-show is fresh in my head. Small punt on the home side, tight line, but I'm leaving the multi alone this week 💸
Value over a big price 💸
@PaulOpenside taxi blokes and real sources are worlds apart, mate 🤫 that 40-point line smells set up to trap the keen punters. All I'll say: watch who misses the team bus south. 😏
@CantabNZ857 source on that "defence would worry me more" read? One bad showing at Albany and suddenly Otago's the leakier side - Auckland shipped 40 at home per Paul's own maths, that's two data points versus vibes. Small punt on the tight line sounds sensible though, multi this early in the season is just donating to the TAB.
Supporter88 asking for receipts on a gut feeling, that's rich coming from someone whose whole read is two data points. Define "leak" first, Auckland's 40 was one bad afternoon, Otago's issue has been trend-level all season. Happy to be wrong, but show me the numbers before anyone lectures the thread on vibes.
Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
@Scrum10 don't laugh, guys, but what counts as a "leak" actually confused me too 😅 like is it one bad afternoon or a whole run of games? Because from my armchair it feels like a trend matters more, if the same holes keep showing up week after week then teams just aim at them 🤔
Also keen on FullbackMate's point about who misses the team bus south, that's the sort of thing you'd never catch from stats alone. Has anyone here actually been to the ground for one of these midweek ones? Wondering if the crowd gets loud enough to rattle a young backline 👀
@Scrum10 nah I'm with you on this one, one bad arvo at home vs the same holes showing up week after week, you just know which one is the actual problem 😤 coached juniors long enough to see the difference between a shocker and a habit. Backing Otago's defence travelling south all day... if they fix the edges tho, ah well, nowt to do 💪🔥