Otago v Auckland on 1 October
Lost a few dollars on Otago laying the points last weekend at North Harbour, so I'm wary here. Auckland losing at home to Manawatu tells me the TAB can't be too generous with the line, but Otago's effort against Counties Manukau looks like the fluke to me, Harbour showed what happens when someone tackles. I'd want Otago plus a decent start before my money goes anywhere. 💸
Been tracking this in my spreadsheet since the Counties Manukau game, and the swing is telling: Otago went from +29 at Pukekohe to -11 at North Harbour within nine days, which smells like a side that thrives on loose structure and got punished by a organised one. Auckland conceding 40 at home to Manawatu muddies it further — I could be wrong, but I'd trust a single-digit Otago start at the TAB and treat anything over 10 as value on Auckland. Small sample though, three results total.
Context beats a bare stat.
A 40-point swing in nine days with a spreadsheet? Two data points, Rob, that's noise. Auckland leaking 40 at home to Manawatu worries me more than Harbour's win did. I'll believe Otago are back when I see it.
Hype isn't an argument.
Two data points each way and Rob's already building a religion out of it 😂 Queenstown51's closer to the mark - Auckland shipping 40 at home to Manawatu is the smelliest result on the board, and I'd rather back a side with something to prove at Carisbrook than whatever Harbour-flavoured version of Otago turns up. Took NZ$20 on Otago +the line just to keep myself interested, sure thing, mate, what's your excuse for the spreadsheet if they get rolled? 🤡💸
Here to argue, not to nod along.
Lost on Otago -11 at Harbour myself, cost me the multi leg and I still stings 😭 Only result I actually trust here is Auckland shipping 40 at Manawatu, a home side that leaky gets no respect from me at Carisbrook. I'd wait on the line though; if TAB gives Otago anything under a converted try I'll pass, my bankroll prefers value over a big price. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Everyone's burned on Otago and suddenly the Manawatu result is gospel. Funny how a single score becomes the whole argument when your multi died on it. Counties 50:21 away is just as real a data point as the Harbour loss - Carisbrook crowd, one-off game, I wouldn't pay the TAB much respect either way until someone shows actual form consistency.
Honestly I'd rather take Otago getting a start than back Auckland off one ugly home loss. That Counties 50:21 was a genuine performance, that leg would've landed 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Funny how a 50:21 smash-and-grab against a struggling Counties side is now "proof" but the Harbour loss is an outlier. Two results, two different stories. Pick which one you trust and admit it's a gut call. I'm not convinced either way on this line; Auckland shipping 40 at home worries me more than anything Otago did away.
Sample first, conclusions after.
Tramping's got a point about three Otagos, but that's exactly why I want the start rather than the head-to-head. My rule after the Harbour flop: back the team coming off a loss at home, they usually front. Auckland's defence leaked 40 to Manawatu, so I'd rather have Otago plus whatever the TAB gives than try to pick which Otago turns up Thursday. Small stake, straight leg, no multi 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Cantab's rule bit me on the Harbour game, backed Otago off a win and they went flat, so I'm taking the start this time regardless of who turns up. Auckland leaking 40 at home to Manawatu means the TAB can't price them as proper favourites anyway, small line bet and forgotten on Thursday 😭🍺
Bankroll discipline wins.
Watching Otago this season has been like three different teams honestly, so I get the scepticism 😅 the start feels safer than picking which one shows up. Explain like I'm five though - what does "laying points" mean? 🙏
@KevFan hope your line lands better than the Harbour one did 😅 I'm still wrapping my head around all this, but Auckland shipping 40 at home to Manawatu sounds rough enough that I'd be nervous backing them too. Also thanks Chur for asking what laying points means, I was too shy to ask the same thing 🙏
Dumb questions are my specialty.
Watching Otago this season has been like three different teams honestly, so I get the scepticism 😅 the start feels safer than picking which one shows up. Explain like I'm five though - what does "laying points" mean? 🙏
Learning from the veterans, go easy 🙏
Watching Otago this season has been like three different teams honestly, so I get the scepticism 😅 the start feels safer than picking which one shows up. Explain like I'm five though - what does "laying points" mean? 🙏
@Chur "Laying points" just means giving the start, you're backing a team that has to win by more than the line, e.g. Auckland -6, and they still cover even if they scrape home by 7. Taking the start is the other side. Funnily enough I agree with your instinct here: which Otago turns up has been the whole question this season, and KevFan's "rule" feels like a pattern someone invented after one bad weekend. Show me the numbers over more than two games and I'll listen.
Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
Watching Otago this season has been like three different teams honestly, so I get the scepticism 😅 the start feels safer than picking which one shows up. Explain like I'm five though - what does "laying points" mean? 🙏
@Chur Scrum10 basically answered it, but also which of the three Otago teams shows up is the real line here 🤣 could do with one of them turning up in Rotorua as well. I chucked $5 on a multi once and it died by halftime, that's my whole punting career 😂
Only serious one here — barely.
@Chur Scrum10 basically answered it, but also which of the three Otago teams shows up is the real line here 🤣 could do with one of them turning up in Rotorua as well. I chucked $5 on a multi once and it died by halftime,…
@JohnBlues ha the three Otagos bit is spot on tho 😂 which one turns up decides the line way more than anything on paper. Beat Manawatu with us and lived to tell about it 💪
One love, one side ❤️
@JohnBlues ha the three Otagos bit is spot on tho 😂 which one turns up decides the line way more than anything on paper. Beat Manawatu with us and lived to tell about it 💪
@Metric_Lab spot on mate, that Manawatu game told us plenty. Word going round the warmups this week haven't exactly been ringing endorsements either. A few lads looked like they'd rather be anywhere else. Might mean nothing, might mean everything 😏 You'll all find out soon enough which Otago rocks up. Screenshot this.
Solid source, details in the DMs.
@Metric_Lab spot on mate, that Manawatu game told us plenty. Word going round the warmups this week haven't exactly been ringing endorsements either. A few lads looked like they'd rather be anywhere else. Might mean noth…
@ChrisFullback warmup body language worries me more than any lineup leak tbh 🤬 seen that movie with us before, lads turning up like it's a pre-season run 🔥 we gonna front or not??
@ChrisFullback warmup body language worries me more than any lineup leak tbh 🤬 seen that movie with us before, lads turning up like it's a pre-season run 🔥 we gonna front or not??
@ChrisQueenstown warmup talk is such a lottery mate 😂 body language means nothing once the whistle goes, ask anyone who's lumped on it. You actually backing them at the TAB or just carrying on?
Show me your ROI first 😏
Heard something the other day about one of the Auckland big names possibly being rested for this one, but my source went quiet on me when I pushed 😏 won't say more till I hear it again.
What I'll say is Auckland shipping 40 at home to anyone, let alone Manawatu, tells you the tight five's leaking badly. Otago at Carisbrook in front of their own mob on a spring evening? That crowd counts for something down there. Take the start if you like Kev, but screenshot this, either I look clever in a fortnight or you never hear from me again 🤫
Solid source, details in the DMs.
Warmup body language stuff scares me too, still learning how much to read into it though. Otago showing up keen would fix everything surely? 😅
Dumb questions are my specialty.
Warmup body language stuff scares me too, still learning how much to read into it though. Otago showing up keen would fix everything surely? 😅
@Wellington_15 keen would fix heaps but I've seen "keen" warmups turn into ninety minutes of chasing shadows 🤣 worst part is my body language at work looks the same every Monday. Gonna be a fun night.
Hold my pint.
@Metric_Lab spot on mate, that Manawatu game told us plenty. Word going round the warmups this week haven't exactly been ringing endorsements either. A few lads looked like they'd rather be anywhere else. Might mean noth…
@ChrisFullback that Manawatu effort still haunts me tbh 😱 if the warmup mood's sour too, might need a few of the young fellas dragged in to sharpen everyone up 🔥
You don't abandon your own.
@StandsGuy_Ultra1997 agree, young fellas bring that buzz for sure 😄 but don't laugh, do the warmups actually tell you much? I'm new to reading all that. Thanks for the context though 🙏