Southland at home on 2 October is my banker against Northland
I'd pump the brakes on calling this a banker before you stake half your multi on it. Southland's two recent losses were both away, true, but they leaked 34 and 55 points on those trips, and Northland's 19:22 home loss to Counties Manukau came a week after they put 52 on Wellington, that's a wider form swing than the headline suggests. Home advantage at Rugby Park matters, and I could be wrong, but I'd want a decent margin on the head-to-head leg rather than taking it at short odds. 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
Hang on, didn't Northland just put 52 on Wellington away though? 😅 Does Southland's home ground really cover them leaking 55 at Taranaki? Sorry if dumb question, still learning the form stuff
Dumb questions are my specialty.
SteveAuckland, that 52 on Wellington was away the week before, and the form between these two has swung both ways over the years. Rugby Park in early October isn't a place Northland travel well to, in my memory of the rivalry anyway. I agree with Rob on the leaked points though, so I'm on Southland head-to-head but keeping the margin band modest and staking light. Lesson from the Taranaki hiding: don't load up on a banker off two losses. 😭
Banker for mine 🔥 Southland at Rugby Park, boys front up in front of the home crowd, no way Northland handle that. Backing them all day 💪 ah well, nowt to do
SteveAuckland, fair question, but 52 on Wellington came a week before they shipped a home loss to Counties, that's swings not form. Southland's leaks were both away trips, back at Rugby Park they're a different side. I'm on Southland head-to-head plus 1-12 margin leg in the TAB multi, modest stake, would it have landed last few seasons? More often than not 🔥
Value over a big price 💸
Supporter_Life spot on 🔥 but that 52 Northland put on Wellington worries me, H2H only for mine. Been on that Rugby Park terrace in October, WIND is brutal 😱
Heart with the team, head on pause.
That 52 in Wellington followed by a home loss to Counties a week later is exactly why I'll skip the margin leg, a side swinging that hard is a coin flip inside the line. Southland H2H for mine, small stake, and that October wind FanaticUltra mentioned trims scoring anyway. Been burned before stacking a margin band on a swingy team, never landed, lesson stays banked 😭
Bankroll discipline wins.
KevFan same call here 🔥 H2H only, skip the margin. That wind off the terrace at Rugby Park trims everything tbh. But banker? Nah, our lot never make it easy, we've all seen Southland switch off at home 😅 small stake for mine, backing them through thick and thin though 💪
Heart with the team, head on pause.
KevFan's got it right, that swing from 52 in Wellington to a home loss against Counties inside a week is exactly why I'm chopping the margin leg out of my multi. Southland H2H only for mine, and I'll take the under-flavoured vibe the October wind brings. Stuck $20 on it via the TAB already, small stake, let it land 🔥
Value over a big price 💸
KevFan's right tbh, H2H only for mine too 💪 coach the juniors down here and that October wind at Rugby Park is no joke. We train in it every week 😱 small stake, backs to the wall 🙌
You don't abandon your own.
Okay this thread actually taught me something 😅 I was ready to throw Southland H2H straight in the multi, but everyone pointing out Northland's swing from 52 in Wellington to losing at home to Counties a week later has got me second-guessing the margin leg too. Sounds like H2H only, small stake through the TAB is the smarter play here? Thanks legends, still learning this stuff 🙏
New here, soaking it up.
Heard a whisper from a mate down south about the week's training, and all I'll say is the H2H-only crowd are onto something 😏 whether it changes anything at Rugby Park, well... you'll all find out soon. Screenshot this if you like 🤫
Solid source, details in the DMs.
Word going round matches what ChrisFullback's hearing apparently... my source down Invercargill way says the week's prep hasn't exactly gone smooth, but I'll leave it there 🤫 H2H only for mine too, the wind at Rugby Park in October sorts margins out on its own. Those who know, know 😏
Solid source, details in the DMs.
Word going round matches what ChrisFullback's hearing apparently... my source down Invercargill way says the week's prep hasn't exactly gone smooth, but I'll leave it there 🤫 H2H only for mine too, the wind at Rugby Park…
@Wing_Fan "Those who know, know", source on that? Because a vague whisper about a rough prep week is worth exactly what my mate's cousin heard at thepub, nothing. I'll believe it when I see it on the team sheet. H2H only is sensible purely because Rugby Park wind in October turns margins into a coin toss, no insider knowledge required.
Hype isn't an argument.
Northland fan here and all these "whispers" are doing my head in 🤬 my lot never make it easy but we'll turn up at Rugby Park regardless 💪 through thick and thin, H2H could go either way tbh.
You don't abandon your own.
Queenstown51 has a point but I'm local enough to know how gossip travels around here 😅 half the "whispers" in Invercargill start at the pub. Still, if the prep's really gone sideways I'd be nervous putting money on it. Thanks guys, this thread is teaching me heaps already 🙏
"Those who know, know" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there, Wing_Fan. Define "not smooth", one limpy wing at training, or half the pack crook? Until someone names a position, it's just pub noise dressed up as intel. And calling an October banker at Rugby Park before the teams are out is brave; the wind down there has humbled better tips than this.
Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
@Wing_Fan "Those who know, know", source on that? Because a vague whisper about a rough prep week is worth exactly what my mate's cousin heard at thepub, nothing. I'll believe it when I see it on the team sheet. H2H only…
@Queenstown51 agree, team sheet or nothing 😅 I'm new here but even I've learnt vague whispers mean squat. Question though. When do the teams usually get named?
Learning from the veterans, go easy 🙏
@Queenstown51 agree, team sheet or nothing 😅 I'm new here but even I've learnt vague whispers mean squat. Question though. When do the teams usually get named?
@Chur usually the teams drop a day or two out, sometimes Thursday arvo for the weekend games. Rule of thumb for me: no bet until the sheet's out, full stop. Lost $80 on a multi last season because a rumour about a crook first five was dead wrong - never again. Wait for the team sheet, then weigh up the line 💸
Value over a big price 💸
@Queenstown51 agree, team sheet or nothing 😅 I'm new here but even I've learnt vague whispers mean squat. Question though. When do the teams usually get named?
@PaulOpenside that rule makes sense, thanks 😅 same thing happened to me with a $20 multi gone because of a rumour. Do the teams ever get named earlier than Thursday?
Dumb questions are my specialty.
Paul's $80 lesson is the whole thread in one sentence, honestly. I'd add the obvious: even with the team sheet out, "banker" in early October means nothing until you've seen the weather and who actually fronts up on the day. Source on Southland's prep being smooth? Nobody's produced one yet, so hold your NZ$ until then.
Paul's $80 lesson is the whole thread in one sentence, honestly. I'd add the obvious: even with the team sheet out, "banker" in early October means nothing until you've seen the weather and who actually fronts up on the …
@Supporter88 weather in Invercargill in October can flip four times before kick-off, banker's a strong word 😂 hold my pint while I watch the forecast change again 🤣
Hold my pint.
Calling anything a "banker" in early October weather is brave. I want a definition of banker before we argue - does one injury rule it out for you?
Sample first, conclusions after.