Southland - Northland: what number would you hang on this line?
That 55-point Paste at Taranaki has me wary of Southland at home, but I still reckon the TAB will hang this around Northland -4 to -6 and that looks about right to me.
One blowout in Wellington doesn't make a form line — Counties Manukau went down there and beat them a week later, so I'm treating that 52:28 as an outlier, not a trend. Southland's been leaky two weeks running, but home turf counts for something in the NPC. I'd be on Northland giving the points but wouldn't touch the margin bands - this smells like a 7-12 game to me, low teens at worst. Loaded up lightly on the away side in my weekend multi, keeping the stake small because my bankroll's taken a couple of hits off backlines lately 😭💸
Value over a big price 💸
Paul, I'd nudge it wider myself. If you weight the two away losses properly - 19:55 at Taranaki is worse than 21:34 at Canterbury, Southland's conceded 76 across a fortnight, and Northland's Wellington 52:28 away win suggests they can pile on points even on the road. Small sample though, and Counties Manukau edged them at home, which keeps me honest. I could be wrong, but I'd hang Northland -7 or -8; at -4 to -6 I'd take the Taniwha with a couple of NZ$. 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
One 52:28 at Wellington and suddenly Northland's a road machine? Sample of one. Wellington's defence that night was a sieve. I'd want closer to level before touching it.
Hype isn't an argument.
76 conceded in a fortnight and you lot want Southland favoured? 😂 Northland -5 for mine, and Queenstown51's "sample of one" take is why he's broke at the TAB 💸
Here to argue, not to nod along.
LockLegend's on the money, I'd take Northland -5 too. Only caveat: a Friday night in Invercargill with the wind howling can shrink any line, ask any punter who's backed away sides down there 😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
Wind at Rugby Park is the great leveller tbh. Northland -4 sounds right, anything wider and I'm having a crack at Southland + with my NZ$ 🔥
You don't abandon your own.
Nah boys, that 55 at Taranaki scares me way more than the Wellington flash 🔥 one good away win then they lose at home to Counties?Southland crowd down there on a Friday night, them forwards gonna get stuck in. Northland -4 max for me, anything wider and im throwing my few NZ$ on Southland + ah well, nowt to do but wait for the line 💪
Tauranga15's got a point, that 52 at Wellington looks like the outlier more than the form spike, and Southland's 55 and 34 losses read worse than they are away. But I've copped it before backing off a bad loss too early, forgot to check the line had already shortened. My number: Northland -4, anything past that I'm on Southland + with a few NZ$ on the side. 😭
Bankroll discipline wins.
Wing_Fan, define "turned things over hard" before anyone puts money on it, that's mate-of-a-mate talk, and I've lost count of times it's meant nothing. KevFan's got the read I'd take: Wellington was the outlier, Counties was the real Northland. I'll wait for Thursday's line, but if it's wider than -4 I might put NZ$20 on Southland plus the points at Rugby Park. Yeah nah, not touching a multi on this one.
Sample first, conclusions after.
Watched that Wellington 52 highlight reel twice 🤣 in Rugby Park mud on a Friday night? Half those tries don't happen. I'd hang it under 4, home turf evens things out.
Came to laugh, stayed for life 🍿
JohnNapier1976's mud theory makes sense to me, under 4 feels safer. Only caught Southland live once, their scrum still stuck with me 😅 go easy on me if that's daft 🙏
New here, soaking it up.
Been told similar about the Southland camp, and from someone I'd actually trust. 😏 Whether it shifts the result is another story, Taranaki was a long way to come home from. Only thing I'll say: watch the Thursday line, if they hang it under 4 something's up. 🤫
Solid source, details in the DMs.
@JackSidestep that Taranaki trip would've done my head in tbh, long road home after a hiding is the worst 😩 Thursday line is a shout tho. If TAB hangs it under 4 you know the smart money's already moved 💪 my worry with Southland is the scrum only gets you so far when the backs are leaking like the bog at Rugby Park 🔥 backing them all day but I want to see the team list first 🙌
Heart with the team, head on pause.
@JackSidestep that Taranaki trip would've done my head in tbh, long road home after a hiding is the worst 😩 Thursday line is a shout tho. If TAB hangs it under 4 you know the smart money's already moved 💪 my worry with S…
@StandsGuyLoyal nah the scrum worry is fair, seen Southland win the tight stuff and still lose it wide too many times 🔥 backs gotta turn up Thursday or it's over.
Heart with the team, head on pause.
@JackSidestep that Taranaki trip would've done my head in tbh, long road home after a hiding is the worst 😩 Thursday line is a shout tho. If TAB hangs it under 4 you know the smart money's already moved 💪 my worry with S…
@StandsGuyLoyal "smart money's already moved", source on that? TAB sets the line; it might just mean they know something. I'll believe it when I see it Thursday.
Sample first, conclusions after.
Rugby Park mud is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this thread 😄 I've stood on that embankment plenty of Friday nights, and yes, it turns into a bog - but the TAB knows that too, they price home ground in before the weather forecast even lands.
My number's -4 Northland, maybe -5. That Wellington 52 is the only decent form line either side has and it was a week before getting touched up at home by Counties. One blowout away win doesn't buy a -7. Southland shipping 55 at Taranaki keeps me off them straight out, though, I learned years ago not to pay for home hope after a hiding like that. So I'd be on the away side giving a goal and change, small stake, straight into the weekend multi and forgotten. If Thursday opens under 4, Jack's right, something's up and I'd want to know why before I touch it 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Tramping mate, it's footy not a court case 🤣 I just want mud, a pie, and someone to kick us to safety Thursday. Gonna be a fun night either way 😂
@JohnBlues nah it is a court case when someone hands me a line and calls the smart money verdict in. You enjoy your pie, I'll be at the pub Thursday with my $5 ready either way, mud makes for good footy anyway, just hope the backs turn up so it's not 80 minutes of kicking to touch.
Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
@JohnBlues nah it is a court case when someone hands me a line and calls the smart money verdict in. You enjoy your pie, I'll be at the pub Thursday with my $5 ready either way, mud makes for good footy anyway, just hope…
@Scrum10 fair enough, you want hard proof before parting with a fiver 🤫 word going round the smoke-filled backrooms is the line won't survive past Wednesday, but that's all I'll say here. Details in the DMs if you're serious.pub bar stool at Hogans this arvo had a few interesting voices in it too 😏
Those who know, know.
@Scrum10 fair enough, you want hard proof before parting with a fiver 🤫 word going round the smoke-filled backrooms is the line won't survive past Wednesday, but that's all I'll say here. Details in the DMs if you're ser…
@FullbackMate mysterious bloke, two of us now saying the same thing over a pint 😏 screenshot this if you like, Wednesday will sort the talkers from the punters 🤫
Solid source, details in the DMs.
@ChrisFullback funny how the "insider" chat always lives in DMs and pub whispering, eh 😅 Steve's right, the TAB line is public, so why all the secrecy? Don't laugh, guys, but if the line's so certain to move, just say it out loud. Or is Wednesday actually going to prove something?
@FullbackMate mysterious bloke, two of us now saying the same thing over a pint 😏 screenshot this if you like, Wednesday will sort the talkers from the punters 🤫
@ChrisFullback if it's such a lock, back it with your own bankroll instead of DMs 😏 I'll take the current line before Wednesday moves it, cheers 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Bit confused why the line info is all secret DMs and backrooms talk 😅 isn't the TAB line just public anyway? Sorry, dumb question probably, still learning this stuff 🙈
Dumb questions are my specialty.
Bit confused why the line info is all secret DMs and backrooms talk 😅 isn't the TAB line just public anyway? Sorry, dumb question probably, still learning this stuff 🙈
@SteveAuckland not a dumb question at all, the TAB line is public, so anyone trading in DM secrets is either guessing or selling something. Source on that "insider info", @ChrisFullback? Receipts please.